Losses have been steepest in Grade 1 contests with your £1 bet returning on average 79p (loss of 21p in the £). Horses that won a Grade 1 contest LTO have scored close to one race in every four which is impressive. Backing all runners would have yielded a good profit also of over 22p in the £. Horses winning LTO in either Grade 2, 3 or Listed company have very similar strike rates, but it is Listed LTO winners who have created the best profit (£49.48 returning 41p in the £). We will examine Irish trainers versus UK trainers in more detail later, but Irish-trained clear favourites have done well.
Tips & Insights
Better yet, they may assist in whittling fields to more manageable numbers with a view to poring over the form on the remaining runners. Ignoring the highly unpredictable handicap chase segment, there are some consistent negative factors worth keeping in mind throughout Cheltenham Festival week. 506 of the 964 starters in all-age Cheltenham Festival handicap hurdles since 2008 have been sent off at greater than 20/1. It may be safe to exclude fillies and mares in all age Cheltenham Festival handicap hurdles. (Incidentally, fillies have an excellent record in the Fred Winter).
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Here there appears to be quite strong correlation between Elliott’s four-month form and his Festival form. When looking at a combination of events – say, all trainer’s runners over a period of time – we can derive an overall PRB figure and use that for comparative purposes. Asterion Forlonge – not on his feet for longe [harsh] – is a really talented horse who is probably just a bit soft.
Horse racing tips: Newcastle, Southwell and Chelmsford – Thursday October 31
Invest £99 in yourself with a JuiceStorm EXCLUSIVE crypto only offer for a BetTrader lifetime license and no further payments. All results for the 48,094 Betfair markets traded are here and the charts are here. All trades and bets were streamed live on JuiceStorm TV which was was watched by 124,209 traders in 2022. He had previously not stayed this testing trip when pulled-up in this contest but arrives here as a more mature individual. He’s a powerful type who has the ability to be involved when it matters most.
Cheltenham Festival Open Grade 1 Micro System
This is perhaps the simplest of the five differentiators. We’re looking for races where all runners are exposed; that is, they’re experienced and have shown pretty much all they have to the handicapper already. In such races, we are not expecting a progressive horse to leap forward seven to ten pounds; rather, we expect that the horse best suited to conditions will have a great chance…
Horse racing tips: Gary Moore’s charge can gain revenge after falling last time out
We’ll have contributions from our resident tipster as well as the chief sports writer, Paul Hayward, racing correspondent, Marcus Armytage and our Centaur correspondent, Alan Tyers. Stays further than 2m and loves heavy ground so has to be a serious player. Mullins-trained Douvan ‘drifting like a barge’ in the betting, according to Matt Chapman. Altior sees off Min to retain his unbeaten record over obstacles. Altior’s Champion Chase victory was his 13th win in his last 13 races – that’s also Nicky Henderson’s fifth victory in the Queen Mother Champion Chase. Pre-race favourite Cause of Causes is right at the back of the field.
Put The Kettle On – Mares’ Chase – 5/1 bet365 (NRNB, BOG) or 11/2 PP (NRNB)
The UK runners did close the gap in 2022, after a dreadful 2021. Only time will tell, but you have to expect the Irish to come out on top overall once more. For many, the Cheltenham Festival is the highlight of not just the National Bolts Up Daily Hunt season, but the whole racing year, writes Dave Renham. In front of a packed and enthralled gathering at South Kensington Holiday Inn, London Racing Club’s annual ‘best of breed’ Cheltenham Preview Evening unfurled.
- It’s worth recalling that she was a Grade 1 winner over hurdles at Aintree last April, and it’s typical of Lucinda Russell’s horses to only show their very best form in the spring.
- But a top priced 8/11, whilst still very far from offensive in value terms, is unexciting for those of us with limited elevens to risk in the pursuit of eights.
- Over the years, the vastly experienced member of the weighing room has been Ireland’s champion jockey on three occasions.
- In the last twelve years, every winner of this race was either a single figure price (five winners) or 25/1+ (seven).
- Of course, he’s a novice and the fences have to be jumped, so that’s a possible issue.
- While she’s the clear favourite and the most likely winner, stepping up to 2m 4f poses a question mark on her stamina.
Robin Goodfellow’s racing tips: Best bets for Tuesday, April 19
- Happily, geegeez.co.uk publishes a few metrics that cut through the thorny thicket of quantifying these data, namely Impact Value, Percentage of Rivals Beaten, and Actual vs Expected.
- The problem is that, as obviously and unsurprisingly fast as he has been, he jumps like, well, like a Dante favourite.
- Horses of a lifetime, it seems, are like London buses for the trainer these days and if he becomes the first trainer to win Cheltenham’s big three races in the Gold Cup on Friday, Might Bite might be considered another.
- She’s the classiest mare in the entries for this race by at least seven pounds, and there’s a chance that drying ground sees Roksana re-routed to the Stayers’ Hurdle.
- After what has been a circuitous introduction even by my own highly verbose standards, it’s time for the meat.
- And Mitbaahy was unfortunate not to rack up the hat-trick over the same course and distance on the Coral-Eclipse undercard last time out.
- Among the British challengers, Teeshan from Paul Nicholls’ yard showed promise with a victory at Exeter last month, while Ben Pauling’s Sixmilebridge impressed on his stable debut at Sandown.
- A strike rate of close to 1 in 5 is excellent and female LTO winners have secured a profit in Grade 1 races of £66.94 (ROI +85.8%).
Watching horse races is a big part of British culture for centuries. Just as exciting is horserace betting, which allows you to back your favourite horse and jockey by placing bets at your bookie shop, or log in and place bets on your sports betting website. The Playright team features the best betting sites, and everything you need to know for betting on this sport of kings. The trend factor which had produced 7+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +68.50 is when runners had 0 career places with the jockey. The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 3 career starts at the track, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-32. The Flat jockeys’ championship takes winners of both Flat and all-weather races taking place from the start of the Guineas meeting at Newmarket (May 4, 2024) and runs until British Champions Day at Ascot (October 19, 2024).
50 – Coral Cup – Marlborough’s preview and tips
As a consequence, I went fishing for a wager in a different pond, the ‘without the favourite’ market. She’s now as big as 7/1 in that market, and in all honesty I’ve cooled on her prospects of running second to Honeysuckle (and therefore winning that bet) a little, though she still has grand claims of being in the first four. And Matt Tombs in his excellent matchbook content added that five of the 14 runners to start with a chase rating 7lb+ lower than their hurdle mark managed to win in the last 13 renewals.
WORLDWIDE STAKES
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He ran a solid seventh in this contest last term, challenging down the inner from an unpromising position; keeping-on well enough behind some talented individuals. Dropped 2lb in the weights this time around, there could be some each-way mileage in his big price, returning to this circuit. A race which is likely to run at a furious gallop, with number contenders for this valuable prize for the Hunter Chasers and amateur jockeys. It is run over the exact same Gold Cup distance, which offers an interesting angle for viewers.
There are several actions that could trigger this block including submitting a certain word or phrase, a SQL command or malformed data. Hillview Hideaway, GotheringtonA superb, luxury holiday home, Hillview Hideaway is your Cotswold haven for exploring Cheltenham and its history. With its own private patio and a fabulous hot tub, it also has a bright and spacious feel with an open-plan kitchen-dining-living area, and a breathtaking mezzanine bedroom. This year marks the Centenary of the Cheltenham Gold Cup. A story that began in 1924, the Gold Cup has since mushroomed to become one of the world’s most renowned steeplechases.
Four of them, though, were going better than the labouring evens-favourite in fifth and an upset on the scale of last year’s looked on the cards. Learn more about Steve’s work by applying for your free information pack including full results and long term statistical analysis by clicking here. Second feature from Steve analysing handicaps and ratings following his insight into his work as a professional backer.
Marie’s Rock had graduated to winning the Mares’ Hurdle and Love Envoi the Mares’ Novices Hurdle. If he can jump like he did at Kempton, then he ought to run really well for Anthony Honeyball, who was unlucky not to win this race with Ms Parfois a few years ago (winner Rathvinden would have been demoted under new whip rules). Like Ms Parfois, Kilbeg King will be ridden by Will Biddick, who has been the best English amateur at Cheltenham over the past decade and more. Salvador Ziggy has achieved as much as the pair above but is a more realistic price, with his second under 12st in the Kerry National a fine effort for a novice. He comes here after an abortive trip to run in the Grand National Hurdle at Far Hills in October, and while the absence might be a worry, he was second in the Pertemps last year off an identical lay-off. I’m struggling to make a case for any of Kings Hill, Supersundae and Gold Dancer.
- Quality of racing, beauty, atmosphere and history all play an important part in determining just how good a racecourse is, and the following made our top ten list .
- “But by the time he got to the winning post he was miles away and gone.
- All the talk’s about Altior with less than 15 minutes left until the big race of the day.
- Few sports are as easy to watch as racing and nobody need ever miss any of the many thousand races run each year.
- Indeed, horses rated 140 or below, including those without a rating, are a combined seven from 308 for a loss at SP of 185 points.
- Another personal best came via a length-and-and-a-half margin from Live In The Dream in the Listed Scurry Stakes over the minimum trip at Sandown Park on the second Saturday in June.
- There looks to be plenty of early speed in this line up with each of Ha d’Or, Dysart Dynamo and Jonbon leading in their most recent three races.
She was very impressive on Irish debut at Fairyhouse beating Zarak the Brave and backed it up at Leopardstown at Christmas before being narrowly beaten by Gala Marceau at the DRF. Lossiemouth was severely hampered at one stage and looked well beaten before staying on strongly to finish only 2.5 Lengths behind the winner. I’ve spoken historically about “the rule of two”, whereby we get past the notion that a single heavy ground win might have been in a very weak race or by some sort of fluke. Two wins affirms that a horse is definitely suited – or can at least handle – extreme going. Naturally, if the horse is two from five, it will be more compelling than if it’s two from 25! And, of course, as we should never tire of saying, the price makes the play.
That’s a potential knock for the strong Willie Mullins-trained fancy, Stattler, who is unbeaten in two fencing contests. In 2013, Mullins won with the unbeaten-in-three Back In Focus, but more recently both 9/4 Ballyward (fell) and 10/11 Carefully Selected (unseated) have succumbed to their inexperience at the obstacles. Still, Stattler’s form credentials are robust and his stamina is assured if his leaping holds up at the expected quicker tempo on quicker turf. Pop back to that Aintree G1 and we find our other joint favourite. There was little between Jonbon and El Fabiolo in Liverpool and they may again be hard to separate. Willie’s contender has had two chasing starts, winning by 19L and 10L, the latter in the Grade 1 Irish Arkle at the Dublin Racing Festival.
If you don’t believe me, I’ve copied the in-running comments from his six races over fences below. He’s won them all, but that might be something to keep in mind if you’re tempted to pile in at cramped odds. Fell at 9/2 in 2018, when Min was only second as a 5/2 shot, and – worse – 7th in 2017 as a 2/9 chance.